ATP tennis predict — Linang Xiao vs Federico Cina

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 06:15

Predicted probability

Linang Xiao

China

12.18%

Federico Cina

Italy

87.82%

Average Odds

9.61 / 1.04

Market probability

9.77% / 90.23%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Cina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1743 vs 1332), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1714 vs 1322) and a stronger return game (37.9% vs 34.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1331.6 Elo 1743.4

1322.3 Elo (surface) 1714.0

1 Wins 15

1 Wins (surface) 8

1 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.752 Dominance ratio 1.066

1000 Rank 150

26.6 Age 19.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Linang Xiao

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-09-07.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–8L · 52.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Linang Xiao Federico Cina

1st Serve In %

57.3%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.8%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

53.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.9%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Linang Xiao Federico Cina

Break Points Saved %

45.6%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

44.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Linang Xiao and Federico Cina have never played each other.

Linang Xiao vs Federico Cina — Prediction