ATP tennis predict — Linang Xiao vs Alexis Galarneau

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · R16 09:30

Predicted probability

Linang Xiao

China

13.36%

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

86.64%

Average Odds

9.83 / 1.05

Market probability

9.65% / 90.35%

Why This Prediction?

Alexis Galarneau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1765 vs 1356), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1713 vs 1351) and more wins on hard courts (165 vs 13).

Player Comparison

1356.3 Elo 1765.2

1350.8 Elo (surface) 1713.4

13 Wins (Challenger) 196

13 Wins (surface) 165

3 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.866 Dominance ratio 0.884

1115 Rank 183

26.5 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Linang Xiao

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-09-07.

Alexis Galarneau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Linang Xiao Alexis Galarneau

1st Serve In %

57.3%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.8%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.9%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Linang Xiao Alexis Galarneau

Break Points Saved %

45.6%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Linang Xiao 0 – 0 Alexis Galarneau

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Alexis Galarneau #183

Linang Xiao #1115

6-3 6-4

2 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

17 First Serve Won 22

8 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 9.8

Linang Xiao vs Alexis Galarneau — Prediction