ATP tennis predict — Liam Draxl vs Tristan Schoolkate

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Liam Draxl

Canada

78.48%

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

21.52%

Average Odds

1.84 / 1.85

Market probability

50.14% / 49.86%

Why This Prediction?

Liam Draxl is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1643 vs 1606), a stronger return game (42.3% vs 31.3% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1600 vs 1596).

Player Comparison

1643.4 Elo 1605.8

1600.0 Elo (surface) 1596.2

15 Wins 31

12 Wins (surface) 25

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.050 Dominance ratio 0.854

217 Rank 180

24.7 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Liam Draxl

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Tristan Schoolkate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Liam Draxl Tristan Schoolkate

1st Serve In %

62.7%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Liam Draxl Tristan Schoolkate

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.2%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.6%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Liam Draxl 0 – 0 Tristan Schoolkate

Hard US Open · 2026-08-28

qualification - 3. round

Tristan Schoolkate #180

Liam Draxl #217

4-6 7-5 7-6

12 Aces 7

6 Double Faults 6

108 Service Points 109

69 First Serve In 58

49 First Serve Won 40

19 Second Serve Won 30

5 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 6

28 Winners 47

18 Unforced Errors 41

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Liam Draxl vs Tristan Schoolkate — Prediction