ATP tennis predict — Liam Draxl vs Toby Samuel

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · F

Predicted probability

Liam Draxl

Canada

36.31%

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

63.69%

Average Odds

2.63 / 1.44

Market probability

35.38% / 64.62%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1857 vs 1620), a higher Elo rating (1716 vs 1651) and a lighter recent match load (70 vs 79 games played recently).

Player Comparison

1651.5 Elo 1715.8

1619.8 Elo (surface) 1856.5

107 Wins (Challenger) 45

84 Wins (surface) 40

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.880 Dominance ratio 0.760

244 Rank 127

24.6 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Liam Draxl

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Liam Draxl Toby Samuel

1st Serve In %

62.7%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

57.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Liam Draxl Toby Samuel

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.2%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

47.6%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Liam Draxl 0 – 0 Toby Samuel

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-26

F

Toby Samuel #67

Liam Draxl #162

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 2

51 Service Points 47

36 First Serve In 28

22 First Serve Won 23

4 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Liam Draxl vs Toby Samuel — Prediction