ATP tennis predict — Liam Draxl vs August Holmgren

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Liam Draxl

Canada

49.03%

August Holmgren

Denmark

50.97%

Average Odds

1.70 / 2.06

Market probability

54.79% / 45.21%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1605.5 Elo 1616.5

1560.4 Elo (surface) 1668.6

104 Wins (Challenger) 92

81 Wins (surface) 76

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.954 Dominance ratio 1.123

244 Rank 227

24.6 Age 28.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Liam Draxl

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Liam Draxl August Holmgren

1st Serve In %

62.7%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

21.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

41.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

57.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Liam Draxl August Holmgren

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.2%

22.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

75.5%

Break Points Converted %

47.6%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Liam Draxl 0 – 1 August Holmgren

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-24

R16

Liam Draxl #244

August Holmgren #227

7-5 1-6 6-4

4 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 8

94 Service Points 90

57 First Serve In 51

40 First Serve Won 33

19 Second Serve Won 22

3 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Hard Granby CH · 2025-07-14

F

August Holmgren #146

Liam Draxl #121

6-3 6-3

8 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 4

45 Service Points 59

25 First Serve In 36

23 First Serve Won 23

13 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Liam Draxl vs August Holmgren — Prediction