ATP tennis predict — Liam Draxl vs Arthur Gea

Challenger Hard Granby challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Liam Draxl

Canada

49.65%

Arthur Gea

France

50.35%

Average Odds

2.52 / 1.48

Market probability

37.00% / 63.00%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1612.0 Elo 1640.1

1564.0 Elo (surface) 1626.2

103 Wins (Challenger) 64

80 Wins (surface) 18

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.001 Dominance ratio 0.988

223 Rank 137

24.6 Age 21.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Liam Draxl

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Liam Draxl Arthur Gea

1st Serve In %

62.7%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Liam Draxl Arthur Gea

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.2%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

45.3%

Break Points Converted %

47.6%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Liam Draxl 0 – 1 Arthur Gea

Hard Granby challenger · 2026-07-17

QF

Arthur Gea #137

Liam Draxl #223

7-6 2-6 6-0

2 Aces 9

4 Double Faults 5

84 Service Points 75

53 First Serve In 36

37 First Serve Won 29

12 Second Serve Won 22

1 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Hard Noumea CH · 2026-01-05

QF

Arthur Gea #241

Liam Draxl #132

6-3 6-2

4 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 56

28 First Serve In 30

22 First Serve Won 17

17 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Liam Draxl vs Arthur Gea — Prediction