ATP tennis predict — Li Tu vs Quinn Vandecasteele

ATP Hard Winston Salem · qualification - round of 16 18:30

Predicted probability

Li Tu

Australia

60.55%

Quinn Vandecasteele

USA

39.45%

Average Odds

1.84 / 1.83

Market probability

49.86% / 50.14%

Why This Prediction?

Li Tu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1623 vs 1455), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1570 vs 1476) and a stronger serve (67.0% vs 59.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1623.4 Elo 1455.4

1569.8 Elo (surface) 1475.5

29 Wins 0

16 Wins (surface) 0

7 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.985 Dominance ratio 0.383

496 Rank 483

30.2 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Li Tu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Quinn Vandecasteele

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele

1st Serve In %

57.1%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.5%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.70

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.84

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.9%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

33.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

29.7%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Li Tu 0 – 0 Quinn Vandecasteele

Hard Winston Salem · 2026-08-22

qualification - round of 16

Quinn Vandecasteele #483

Li Tu #496

6-3 6-2

1 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 3

43 Service Points 63

24 First Serve In 34

17 First Serve Won 26

6 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.8

Li Tu vs Quinn Vandecasteele — Prediction