ATP tennis predict — Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul

ATP Hard Montreal · 3. round 03:30

Predicted probability

Learner Tien

USA

49.08%

Tommy Paul

USA

50.92%

Average Odds

2.42 / 1.56

Market probability

39.20% / 60.80%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1845.7 Elo 1900.6

1719.4 Elo (surface) 1764.5

73 Wins 282

55 Wins (surface) 189

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.813 Dominance ratio 0.901

19 Rank 21

20.7 Age 29.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Tommy Paul

1st Serve In %

61.0%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.4%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Tommy Paul

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

62.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.2%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Learner Tien 0 – 1 Tommy Paul

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-08

3. round

Learner Tien #19

Tommy Paul #21

6-3 6-2

0 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 54

37 First Serve In 32

26 First Serve Won 18

7 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 12

13 Winners 13

20 Unforced Errors 33

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Delray Beach · 2026-02-16

SF

Tommy Paul #24

Learner Tien #23

4-6 6-4 6-3

15 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 2

114 Service Points 96

70 First Serve In 51

50 First Serve Won 40

23 Second Serve Won 20

7 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul — Prediction