ATP tennis predict — Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

ATP Hard Montreal · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Learner Tien

USA

69.02%

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

30.98%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.87

Market probability

66.90% / 33.10%

Why This Prediction?

Learner Tien is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1864 vs 1750), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1739 vs 1676) and a stronger return game (39.5% vs 33.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1863.9 Elo 1750.3

1738.9 Elo (surface) 1676.5

74 Wins 63

56 Wins (surface) 26

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.820 Dominance ratio 0.966

19 Rank 65

20.7 Age 25.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Thiago Agustin Tirante

1st Serve In %

61.0%

55.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

76.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.4%

57.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Thiago Agustin Tirante

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

54.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.2%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Learner Tien 0 – 0 Thiago Agustin Tirante

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-09

R16

Learner Tien #19

Thiago Agustin Tirante #65

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 1

80 Service Points 67

59 First Serve In 36

37 First Serve Won 23

9 Second Serve Won 13

8 Break Points Saved 8

10 Break Points Faced 12

20 Winners 25

29 Unforced Errors 38

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Prediction