ATP tennis predict — Learner Tien vs Sebastian Baez

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Learner Tien

USA

79.65%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

20.35%

Average Odds

1.30 / 3.54

Market probability

73.14% / 26.86%

Why This Prediction?

Learner Tien is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1748 vs 1544), a higher Elo rating (1873 vs 1780) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1873.4 Elo 1780.4

1748.3 Elo (surface) 1544.0

76 Wins 147

58 Wins (surface) 40

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.933 Dominance ratio 0.805

19 Rank 48

20.7 Age 25.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

61.0%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.4%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.2%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Learner Tien 0 – 0 Sebastian Baez

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Learner Tien #12

Sebastian Baez #53

6-3 7-6

5 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 2

61 Service Points 60

43 First Serve In 37

34 First Serve Won 22

9 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 4

20 Winners 9

0 Unforced Errors 0

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Learner Tien vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction