ATP tennis predict — Learner Tien vs Hubert Hurkacz

ATP Hard Beijing · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Learner Tien

USA

66.71%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

33.29%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.20

Market probability

56.99% / 43.01%

Why This Prediction?

Learner Tien is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2078 vs 2041) and a stronger return game (38.9% vs 33.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

2077.7 Elo 2041.5

2032.7 Elo (surface) 1963.0

81 Wins 266

63 Wins (surface) 178

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.987 Dominance ratio 0.990

15 Rank 41

20.8 Age 29.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

61.0%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.4%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

41.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

56.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

29.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.2%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Learner Tien and Hubert Hurkacz have never played each other.

Learner Tien vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction