ATP tennis predict — Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 01:10

Predicted probability

Learner Tien

USA

80.10%

Gael Monfils

France

19.90%

Average Odds

1.18 / 4.92

Market probability

80.66% / 19.34%

Why This Prediction?

Learner Tien is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1882 vs 1766), more career match wins (40 vs 39) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1881.9 Elo 1765.7

1760.3 Elo (surface) 1830.5

78 Wins 594

60 Wins (surface) 397

9 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.956 Dominance ratio 0.922

15 Rank 311

20.8 Age 40.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gael Monfils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Gael Monfils

1st Serve In %

61.0%

56.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.4%

43.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Gael Monfils

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

38.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.2%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Learner Tien 1 – 0 Gael Monfils

Hard US Open · 2026-09-04

2. round

Learner Tien #15

Gael Monfils #311

6-3 6-4 6-3

8 Aces 3

8 Double Faults 4

103 Service Points 98

50 First Serve In 60

38 First Serve Won 48

20 Second Serve Won 19

9 Break Points Saved 8

13 Break Points Faced 8

29 Winners 20

54 Unforced Errors 21

1.2 Average Odds 4.9

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

2. round

Learner Tien #19

Gael Monfils #347

6-3 0-6 6-3

3 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 6

94 Service Points 87

59 First Serve In 37

36 First Serve Won 25

16 Second Serve Won 25

9 Break Points Saved 6

13 Break Points Faced 10

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils — Prediction