ATP tennis predict — Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 03:05

Predicted probability

Learner Tien

USA

70.40%

Gael Monfils

France

29.60%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.30

Market probability

71.12% / 28.88%

Why This Prediction?

Learner Tien is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1833 vs 1773) and more career match wins (40 vs 39).

Player Comparison

1832.6 Elo 1772.6

1694.5 Elo (surface) 1855.8

72 Wins 593

54 Wins (surface) 396

10 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.839 Dominance ratio 0.930

19 Rank 347

20.7 Age 39.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gael Monfils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Gael Monfils

1st Serve In %

61.0%

56.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.4%

43.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Gael Monfils

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

38.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.2%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Learner Tien 0 – 0 Gael Monfils

Hard US Open · 2026-09-04

2. round

Learner Tien #15

Gael Monfils #311

6-3 6-4 6-3

8 Aces 3

8 Double Faults 4

103 Service Points 98

50 First Serve In 60

38 First Serve Won 48

20 Second Serve Won 19

9 Break Points Saved 8

13 Break Points Faced 8

29 Winners 20

54 Unforced Errors 21

1.2 Average Odds 4.9

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

2. round

Learner Tien #19

Gael Monfils #347

6-3 0-6 6-3

3 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 6

94 Service Points 87

59 First Serve In 37

36 First Serve Won 25

16 Second Serve Won 25

9 Break Points Saved 6

13 Break Points Faced 10

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils — Prediction