ATP tennis predict — Learner Tien vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

ATP Hard Montreal · QF 01:45

Predicted probability

Learner Tien

USA

73.21%

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

26.79%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.64

Market probability

64.08% / 35.92%

Why This Prediction?

Learner Tien is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1753 vs 1560), a higher Elo rating (1875 vs 1806) and a stronger serve (63.9% vs 55.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1874.7 Elo 1806.5

1753.0 Elo (surface) 1559.7

75 Wins 29

57 Wins (surface) 10

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.898 Dominance ratio 0.853

19 Rank 63

20.7 Age 21.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Daniel Merida Aguilar

1st Serve In %

61.0%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.4%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Learner Tien Daniel Merida Aguilar

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.2%

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Learner Tien 0 – 0 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-12

QF

Learner Tien #19

Daniel Merida Aguilar #63

6-3 6-2

0 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 0

55 Service Points 52

34 First Serve In 38

18 First Serve Won 27

9 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 3

12 Winners 13

32 Unforced Errors 17

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Learner Tien vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Prediction