ATP tennis predict — Kyrian Jacquet vs Luciano Darderi

ATP Hard Tokyo · R16 09:00

Predicted probability

Kyrian Jacquet

France

37.96%

Luciano Darderi

Italy

62.04%

Average Odds

2.12 / 1.70

Market probability

44.50% / 55.50%

Why This Prediction?

Luciano Darderi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1976 vs 1844), a stronger serve (63.7% vs 61.0% of service points won) and a stronger return game (46.3% vs 41.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1844.4 Elo 1976.4

1818.5 Elo (surface) 1813.1

28 Wins 97

16 Wins (surface) 22

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.003 Dominance ratio 1.109

86 Rank 19

25.4 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kyrian Jacquet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kyrian Jacquet Luciano Darderi

1st Serve In %

56.5%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

52.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.2%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kyrian Jacquet Luciano Darderi

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.6%

71.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.5%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kyrian Jacquet and Luciano Darderi have never played each other.

Kyrian Jacquet vs Luciano Darderi — Prediction