ATP tennis predict — Kyrian Jacquet vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

ATP Clay Estoril · 1. round

Predicted probability

Kyrian Jacquet

France

31.49%

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

68.51%

Average Odds

2.88 / 1.41

Market probability

32.87% / 67.13%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Merida Aguilar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1806 vs 1575), a higher Elo rating (1759 vs 1673) and better recent form (11 wins in his last 15 matches vs 8).

Player Comparison

1672.6 Elo 1759.0

1575.4 Elo (surface) 1805.5

20 Wins 25

5 Wins (surface) 18

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.180 Dominance ratio 0.965

134 Rank 59

25.2 Age 21.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kyrian Jacquet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kyrian Jacquet Daniel Merida Aguilar

1st Serve In %

56.0%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.2%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kyrian Jacquet Daniel Merida Aguilar

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

29.9%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.6%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.5%

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kyrian Jacquet 0 – 1 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-21

1. round

Kyrian Jacquet #134

Daniel Merida Aguilar #59

1-6 6-1 7-5

2 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 4

70 Service Points 87

43 First Serve In 50

27 First Serve Won 30

14 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 11

18 Winners 36

34 Unforced Errors 42

2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Clay Lyon CH · 2025-06-09

R32

Daniel Merida Aguilar #292

Kyrian Jacquet #142

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 4

77 Service Points 69

49 First Serve In 37

39 First Serve Won 25

12 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Kyrian Jacquet vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Prediction