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Koki Matsuda vs Yaojie Zeng — Prediction

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · qualification - 1. round 05:00

Predicted probability

Koki Matsuda

Japan

75.71%

Yaojie Zeng

China

24.29%

Average Odds

1.51  /  2.49

Market probability

62.25%  /  37.75%

Why This Prediction?

Koki Matsuda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1526 vs 1377), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1532 vs 1388) and a stronger serve (64.9% vs 58.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1526.1 Elo 1377.2
1532.3 Elo (surface) 1387.5
20 Wins (Challenger) 5
20 Wins (surface) 5
9 Last 15 form 4
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.052 Dominance ratio 0.768
479 Rank 969
25.8 Age 24.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Yaojie Zeng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Yaojie Zeng

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

66.7%
60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%
66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%
52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%
21.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%
41.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.61
0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Yaojie Zeng

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

68.2%
47.2%

Break Points Converted %

26.0%
31.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Koki Matsuda and Yaojie Zeng have never played each other.

Koki Matsuda — Last 10

L L W L W W W L L W

Yaojie Zeng — Last 10

L L W L L L L L L L