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Koki Matsuda vs Kerem Yilmaz — Prediction

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Koki Matsuda

Japan

70.70%

Kerem Yilmaz

Turkey

29.30%

Average Odds

1.30  /  3.01

Market probability

69.84%  /  30.16%

Why This Prediction?

Koki Matsuda is the favorite because he has more career match wins (18 vs 2), a stronger serve (63.2% vs 58.1% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (18 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1521.6 Elo 1508.2
1522.0 Elo (surface) 1548.4
18 Wins (Challenger) 2
18 Wins (surface) 2
9 Last 15 form 2
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.971 Dominance ratio 0.978
478 Rank 955
25.8 Age None
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Kerem Yilmaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Kerem Yilmaz

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

66.7%
66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%
64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%
50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%
32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%
49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.61
0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Kerem Yilmaz

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

68.2%
57.4%

Break Points Converted %

26.0%
35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Koki Matsuda 00 Kerem Yilmaz

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-04
3-6 6-3 7-6
6 Aces 3
1 Double Faults 4
100 Service Points 106
61 First Serve In 67
40 First Serve Won 46
25 Second Serve Won 21
5 Break Points Saved 9
7 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.3 Average Odds 3.0

Koki Matsuda — Last 10

L L W L W W W L L W

Kerem Yilmaz — Last 5

L W W L L