ATP tennis predict — Koki Matsuda vs Hayato Matsuoka

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · 1. round 10:45

Predicted probability

Koki Matsuda

Japan

42.78%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

57.22%

Average Odds

2.84 / 1.39

Market probability

32.86% / 67.14%

Why This Prediction?

Hayato Matsuoka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1570 vs 1553), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1572 vs 1560) and more career match wins (39 vs 20).

Player Comparison

1553.4 Elo 1569.5

1559.8 Elo (surface) 1572.2

20 Wins (Challenger) 39

20 Wins (surface) 38

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.021 Dominance ratio 1.092

478 Rank 309

25.8 Age 21.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

—

1st Serve Points Won %

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

Aces per Service Game

—

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.7%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

—

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

26.0%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Koki Matsuda 0 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-10

1. round

Hayato Matsuoka #309

Koki Matsuda #478

6-3 6-4

2 Aces 6

0 Double Faults 2

57 Service Points 55

36 First Serve In 40

24 First Serve Won 32

10 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Koki Matsuda vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction