ATP tennis predict — Koki Matsuda vs Gijs Brouwer

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · QF 16:00

Predicted probability

Koki Matsuda

Japan

54.02%

Gijs Brouwer

Netherlands

45.98%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.35

Market probability

60.26% / 39.74%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1583.9 Elo 1563.9

1589.9 Elo (surface) 1576.0

20 Wins (Challenger) 95

20 Wins (surface) 70

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.063 Dominance ratio 0.924

478 Rank 1156

25.8 Age 30.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Gijs Brouwer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Gijs Brouwer

1st Serve In %

—

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

40.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.7%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

39.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

36.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Gijs Brouwer

Break Points Saved %

—

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

35.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

26.0%

44.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Koki Matsuda 0 – 0 Gijs Brouwer

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Gijs Brouwer #1156

Koki Matsuda #478

6-4 1-6 6-2

4 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 4

92 Service Points 83

48 First Serve In 62

34 First Serve Won 39

16 Second Serve Won 6

9 Break Points Saved 8

14 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Koki Matsuda vs Gijs Brouwer — Prediction