ATP tennis predict — Koki Matsuda vs Gabriel Debru

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Koki Matsuda

Japan

32.63%

Gabriel Debru

France

67.37%

Average Odds

3.17 / 1.33

Market probability

29.56% / 70.44%

Why This Prediction?

Gabriel Debru is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1591 vs 1481), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1509 vs 1480) and a stronger return game (40.8% vs 35.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1480.6 Elo 1590.8

1480.1 Elo (surface) 1509.1

16 Wins (Challenger) 56

16 Wins (surface) 18

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.933 Dominance ratio 0.978

514 Rank -

25.8 Age 20.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Gabriel Debru

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Gabriel Debru

1st Serve In %

—

64.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

61.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

41.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

56.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.7%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

46.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Gabriel Debru

Break Points Saved %

—

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

58.9%

Break Points Converted %

26.0%

47.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Koki Matsuda 0 – 0 Gabriel Debru

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-31

QF

Gabriel Debru #-

Koki Matsuda #514

4-6 7-6 6-3

5 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 2

92 Service Points 103

60 First Serve In 64

43 First Serve Won 48

19 Second Serve Won 23

3 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Koki Matsuda vs Gabriel Debru — Prediction