ATP tennis predict — Koki Matsuda vs Fanming Meng

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · qualification - round of 16 05:10

Predicted probability

Koki Matsuda

Japan

85.79%

Fanming Meng

China

14.21%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.04

Market probability

69.41% / 30.59%

Why This Prediction?

Koki Matsuda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1548 vs 1502), more career match wins (21 vs 1) and a stronger serve (64.7% vs 54.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1542.2 Elo 1506.1

1547.6 Elo (surface) 1501.7

21 Wins (Challenger) 1

21 Wins (surface) 1

9 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.109 Dominance ratio 0.889

483 Rank 1027

25.8 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Fanming Meng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Fanming Meng

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

66.7%

75.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

61.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

53.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Fanming Meng

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

26.0%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Koki Matsuda 0 – 0 Fanming Meng

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-08-31

qualification - round of 16

Koki Matsuda #483

Fanming Meng #1027

2-6 6-3 7-6

13 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 2

96 Service Points 96

61 First Serve In 70

47 First Serve Won 45

18 Second Serve Won 17

7 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.0

Koki Matsuda vs Fanming Meng — Prediction