ATP tennis predict — Koki Matsuda vs Daniil Ostapenkov

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Koki Matsuda

Japan

53.01%

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

46.99%

Average Odds

2.10 / 1.67

Market probability

44.30% / 55.70%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1494.2 Elo 1466.0

1488.1 Elo (surface) 1535.9

17 Wins (Challenger) 10

17 Wins (surface) 6

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.938 Dominance ratio 1.050

514 Rank 536

25.8 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Daniil Ostapenkov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Daniil Ostapenkov

1st Serve In %

—

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

59.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

55.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.7%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

42.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Daniil Ostapenkov

Break Points Saved %

—

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

63.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

26.0%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Koki Matsuda 0 – 0 Daniil Ostapenkov

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-03

qualification - round of 16

Koki Matsuda #478

Daniil Ostapenkov #533

7-6 6-3

10 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 7

72 Service Points 72

49 First Serve In 43

37 First Serve Won 29

13 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Koki Matsuda vs Daniil Ostapenkov — Prediction