ATP tennis predict — Koki Matsuda vs Colin Sinclair

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Koki Matsuda

Japan

54.14%

Colin Sinclair

N. Mariana Isl.

45.86%

Average Odds

1.64 / 2.16

Market probability

56.84% / 43.16%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1450.2 Elo 1445.2

1449.3 Elo (surface) 1448.8

15 Wins (Challenger) 54

15 Wins (surface) 49

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.030 Dominance ratio 1.107

514 Rank 511

25.7 Age 31.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Colin Sinclair

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Colin Sinclair

1st Serve In %

—

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

41.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.7%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

78.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

57.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Colin Sinclair

Break Points Saved %

—

14.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

20.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

68.1%

Break Points Converted %

26.0%

36.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Koki Matsuda 0 – 1 Colin Sinclair

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-29

R16

Koki Matsuda #514

Colin Sinclair #511

6-3 6-3

5 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 2

76 Service Points 66

47 First Serve In 45

27 First Serve Won 30

11 Second Serve Won 10

6 Break Points Saved 5

11 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Hard Yokkaichi CH · 2022-11-21

Q2

Colin Sinclair #498

Koki Matsuda #900

6-3 6-4

4 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

60 Service Points 64

33 First Serve In 36

23 First Serve Won 21

15 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Koki Matsuda vs Colin Sinclair — Prediction