← Back to Predictions

Koki Matsuda vs Cem Ilkel — Prediction

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Koki Matsuda

Japan

41.53%

Cem Ilkel

Turkey

58.47%

Average Odds

1.30  /  3.31

Market probability

71.80%  /  28.20%

Why This Prediction?

Cem Ilkel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1513 vs 1460), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1519 vs 1452) and more wins on hard courts (20 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1459.5 Elo 1512.9
1452.2 Elo (surface) 1519.5
16 Wins (Challenger) 174
16 Wins (surface) 152
8 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.966 Dominance ratio 0.878
514 Rank -
25.8 Age 31.0
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Cem Ilkel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Cem Ilkel

1st Serve In %

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.7%
61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%
68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%
48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%
27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%
45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.61
0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Koki Matsuda Cem Ilkel

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.2%
61.8%

Break Points Converted %

26.0%
21.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Koki Matsuda 00 Cem Ilkel

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-02

qualification - 1. round

Koki Matsuda #514

Cem Ilkel #-

6-2 7-5
7 Aces 4
1 Double Faults 1
66 Service Points 75
42 First Serve In 53
34 First Serve Won 31
13 Second Serve Won 11
6 Break Points Saved 5
6 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Koki Matsuda — Last 10

L L W L W W W L L W

Cem Ilkel — Last 10

L L L L L W L L L L