ATP tennis predict — Khumoun Sultanov vs Mert Alkaya

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · QF 09:30

Predicted probability

Khumoun Sultanov

Uzbekistan

55.50%

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

44.50%

Average Odds

1.76 / 1.98

Market probability

52.94% / 47.06%

Why This Prediction?

Khumoun Sultanov is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (64.2% vs 57.7% of service points won), a stronger return game (37.2% vs 34.0% of return points won) and more wins on hard courts (6 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1533.2 Elo 1554.0

1532.6 Elo (surface) 1566.6

67 Wins (Challenger) 20

53 Wins (surface) 19

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.039 Dominance ratio 0.804

508 Rank 299

27.8 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Khumoun Sultanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Khumoun Sultanov Mert Alkaya

1st Serve In %

59.7%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

60.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.0%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Khumoun Sultanov Mert Alkaya

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

46.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.8%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Khumoun Sultanov 0 – 0 Mert Alkaya

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-14

QF

Khumoun Sultanov #508

Mert Alkaya #299

7-6 6-3

1 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 2

61 Service Points 65

39 First Serve In 33

31 First Serve Won 23

16 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Khumoun Sultanov vs Mert Alkaya — Prediction