ATP tennis predict — Keshav Chopra vs Ergi Kirkin

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · qualification - 1. round 09:10

Predicted probability

Keshav Chopra

USA

44.62%

Ergi Kirkin

Turkey

55.38%

Average Odds

2.32 / 1.55

Market probability

40.05% / 59.95%

Why This Prediction?

Ergi Kirkin is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (35 vs 5), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1542 vs 1505) and more career match wins (96 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1508.7 Elo 1497.8

1504.9 Elo (surface) 1541.9

5 Wins (Challenger) 96

5 Wins (surface) 35

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.741 Dominance ratio 0.869

697 Rank 657

24.9 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keshav Chopra

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Ergi Kirkin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keshav Chopra Ergi Kirkin

1st Serve In %

56.9%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

51.7%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.9%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

5.9%

24.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

0.0%

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

53.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.4%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keshav Chopra Ergi Kirkin

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.3%

46.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.6%

44.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keshav Chopra 0 – 0 Ergi Kirkin

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Ergi Kirkin #657

Keshav Chopra #697

5-7 7-6 6-2

3 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 2

89 Service Points 105

54 First Serve In 47

39 First Serve Won 38

20 Second Serve Won 31

1 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Keshav Chopra vs Ergi Kirkin — Prediction