ATP tennis predict — Kerem Yilmaz vs Alec Deckers

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Kerem Yilmaz

Turkey

25.67%

Alec Deckers

Netherlands

74.33%

Average Odds

3.66 / 1.26

Market probability

25.61% / 74.39%

Why This Prediction?

Alec Deckers is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1507 vs 1444), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1532 vs 1483) and a stronger serve (65.6% vs 53.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1444.0 Elo 1507.4

1482.9 Elo (surface) 1531.9

1 Wins (Challenger) 7

1 Wins (surface) 3

1 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.896 Dominance ratio 0.853

956 Rank 574

None Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kerem Yilmaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Alec Deckers

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kerem Yilmaz Alec Deckers

1st Serve In %

—

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

21.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

41.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.85

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.1%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

24.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.79

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kerem Yilmaz Alec Deckers

Break Points Saved %

—

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

30.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

68.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.4%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kerem Yilmaz 0 – 0 Alec Deckers

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-03

qualification - round of 16

Kerem Yilmaz #955

Alec Deckers #577

4-6 7-5 7-5

4 Aces 19

3 Double Faults 5

99 Service Points 123

70 First Serve In 63

50 First Serve Won 48

21 Second Serve Won 27

6 Break Points Saved 10

8 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.7 Average Odds 1.3

Kerem Yilmaz vs Alec Deckers — Prediction