ATP tennis predict — Kenta Miyoshi vs Vadym Ursu

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

83.17%

Vadym Ursu

Ukraine

16.83%

Average Odds

1.33 / 3.16

Market probability

70.38% / 29.62%

Why This Prediction?

Kenta Miyoshi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1666 vs 1434), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1673 vs 1470) and a stronger serve (63.7% vs 56.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1666.1 Elo 1434.2

1672.9 Elo (surface) 1470.4

23 Wins (Challenger) 43

23 Wins (surface) 36

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.279 Dominance ratio 0.936

- Rank 416

22.4 Age 29.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kenta Miyoshi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Vadym Ursu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kenta Miyoshi Vadym Ursu

1st Serve In %

45.1%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

37.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

42.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.70

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.7%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kenta Miyoshi Vadym Ursu

Break Points Saved %

42.9%

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

23.1%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kenta Miyoshi 0 – 0 Vadym Ursu

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-31

QF

Kenta Miyoshi #-

Vadym Ursu #416

6-2 6-4

5 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 3

52 Service Points 44

30 First Serve In 25

22 First Serve Won 13

12 Second Serve Won 8

1 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Kenta Miyoshi vs Vadym Ursu — Prediction