ATP tennis predict — Kenta Miyoshi vs Shunsuke Nakagawa

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

76.65%

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Japan

23.35%

Average Odds

1.13 / 5.31

Market probability

82.45% / 17.55%

Why This Prediction?

Kenta Miyoshi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1634 vs 1449), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1637 vs 1485) and a stronger return game (45.7% vs 39.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1634.4 Elo 1449.4

1637.4 Elo (surface) 1485.4

21 Wins (Challenger) 7

21 Wins (surface) 7

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.200 Dominance ratio 0.997

- Rank 993

22.4 Age 26.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kenta Miyoshi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kenta Miyoshi Shunsuke Nakagawa

1st Serve In %

45.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.7%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

42.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kenta Miyoshi Shunsuke Nakagawa

Break Points Saved %

42.9%

—

Break Points Converted %

23.1%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

30.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kenta Miyoshi 0 – 0 Shunsuke Nakagawa

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Kenta Miyoshi #-

Shunsuke Nakagawa #993

6-2 6-2

6 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 3

47 Service Points 62

27 First Serve In 41

20 First Serve Won 26

14 Second Serve Won 6

4 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.3

Kenta Miyoshi vs Shunsuke Nakagawa — Prediction