ATP tennis predict — Kenta Miyoshi vs Roger Pascual Ferra

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · qualification - round of 16 18:30

Predicted probability

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

73.08%

Roger Pascual Ferra

Spain

26.92%

Average Odds

1.62 / 2.18

Market probability

57.37% / 42.63%

Why This Prediction?

Kenta Miyoshi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1671 vs 1572), a stronger serve (69.0% vs 56.8% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1669 vs 1587).

Player Comparison

1668.8 Elo 1587.2

1670.6 Elo (surface) 1572.4

29 Wins (Challenger) 4

29 Wins (surface) 4

11 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.226 Dominance ratio 1.025

- Rank 682

22.4 Age 20.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kenta Miyoshi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Roger Pascual Ferra

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kenta Miyoshi Roger Pascual Ferra

1st Serve In %

45.1%

67.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

60.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

60.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

34.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

67.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

60.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.7%

35.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.09

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kenta Miyoshi Roger Pascual Ferra

Break Points Saved %

42.9%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

23.1%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

61.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

35.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kenta Miyoshi 0 – 0 Roger Pascual Ferra

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-17

qualification - round of 16

Kenta Miyoshi #-

Roger Pascual Ferra #682

4-6 7-5 6-1

6 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 7

80 Service Points 88

41 First Serve In 64

34 First Serve Won 36

19 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Kenta Miyoshi vs Roger Pascual Ferra — Prediction