ATP tennis predict — Kenta Miyoshi vs Mert Alkaya

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 18:00

Predicted probability

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

74.68%

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

25.32%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.32

Market probability

59.79% / 40.21%

Why This Prediction?

Kenta Miyoshi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1676 vs 1518), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1687 vs 1527) and a stronger return game (39.8% vs 35.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1675.9 Elo 1517.8

1687.3 Elo (surface) 1527.4

27 Wins (Challenger) 18

27 Wins (surface) 17

12 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.168 Dominance ratio 0.901

- Rank 299

22.4 Age 26.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kenta Miyoshi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kenta Miyoshi Mert Alkaya

1st Serve In %

45.1%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

60.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.7%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kenta Miyoshi Mert Alkaya

Break Points Saved %

42.9%

46.7%

Break Points Converted %

23.1%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kenta Miyoshi 0 – 0 Mert Alkaya

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Kenta Miyoshi #-

Mert Alkaya #299

6-3 6-2

4 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

52 Service Points 53

26 First Serve In 27

22 First Serve Won 15

14 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Kenta Miyoshi vs Mert Alkaya — Prediction