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Keisuke Saitoh vs Koki Matsuda — Prediction

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · qualification - 1. round 08:30

Predicted probability

Keisuke Saitoh

Japan

14.63%

Koki Matsuda

Japan

85.37%

Average Odds

1.75  /  1.97

Market probability

52.96%  /  47.04%

Why This Prediction?

Koki Matsuda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1543 vs 1323), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1540 vs 1321) and a stronger serve (64.9% vs 58.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1322.6 Elo 1543.5
1320.6 Elo (surface) 1540.3
6 Wins (Challenger) 24
5 Wins (surface) 24
3 Last 15 form 9
0 Head-to-head wins 1
0.735 Dominance ratio 1.056
550 Rank 475
25.4 Age 25.9
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keisuke Saitoh

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keisuke Saitoh Koki Matsuda

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

67.9%
66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.5%
73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%
46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%
27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%
53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.12
0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13
0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keisuke Saitoh Koki Matsuda

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

51.6%
68.2%

Break Points Converted %

27.8%
26.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keisuke Saitoh 0 – 1 Koki Matsuda

Hard Matsuyama CH · 2025-11-03
7-5 5-7 6-4
5 Aces 1
3 Double Faults 3
91 Service Points 115
53 First Serve In 82
41 First Serve Won 45
18 Second Serve Won 22
2 Break Points Saved 8
6 Break Points Faced 13
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Keisuke Saitoh — Last 10

L L L W L L L L W L

Koki Matsuda — Last 10

L L W L W W W L L W