ATP tennis predict — Keisuke Saitoh vs Hiroki Moriya

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · R16 05:05

Predicted probability

Keisuke Saitoh

Japan

54.50%

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

45.50%

Average Odds

1.80 / 1.92

Market probability

51.61% / 48.39%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1478.2 Elo 1528.5

1479.9 Elo (surface) 1509.6

10 Wins (Challenger) 311

9 Wins (surface) 279

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.735 Dominance ratio 1.100

550 Rank 505

25.4 Age 36.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keisuke Saitoh

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-09-28.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keisuke Saitoh Hiroki Moriya

1st Serve In %

—

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.3%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.0%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

56.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.9%

37.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

58.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keisuke Saitoh Hiroki Moriya

Break Points Saved %

—

66.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

53.8%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keisuke Saitoh and Hiroki Moriya have never played each other.

Keisuke Saitoh vs Hiroki Moriya — Prediction