ATP tennis predict — Kei Nishikori vs Rei Sakamoto

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Kei Nishikori

Japan

52.55%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

47.45%

Average Odds

2.08 / 1.67

Market probability

44.53% / 55.47%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1786.4 Elo 1695.1

1794.8 Elo (surface) 1621.6

492 Wins 16

333 Wins (surface) 12

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.929 Dominance ratio 1.045

477 Rank 157

36.7 Age 20.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kei Nishikori

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kei Nishikori Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

60.6%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kei Nishikori Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.1%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kei Nishikori 0 – 0 Rei Sakamoto

Hard US Open · 2026-08-28

qualification - 3. round

Rei Sakamoto #157

Kei Nishikori #477

6-4 7-6

0 Aces 19

4 Double Faults 1

88 Service Points 60

51 First Serve In 37

32 First Serve Won 31

17 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 1

14 Winners 33

25 Unforced Errors 16

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Kei Nishikori vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction