ATP tennis predict — Kei Nishikori vs Michael Antonius

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Kei Nishikori

Japan

76.31%

Michael Antonius

USA

23.69%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.06

Market probability

54.64% / 45.36%

Why This Prediction?

Kei Nishikori is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1790 vs 1584), a higher Elo rating (1782 vs 1568) and more career match wins (78 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1782.2 Elo 1567.9

1789.7 Elo (surface) 1583.6

491 Wins 1

332 Wins (surface) 1

7 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.906 Dominance ratio 2.077

477 Rank 670

36.7 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kei Nishikori

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Michael Antonius

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kei Nishikori Michael Antonius

1st Serve In %

60.6%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.06

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

63.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

54.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kei Nishikori Michael Antonius

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

60.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.1%

75.0%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kei Nishikori 0 – 0 Michael Antonius

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Kei Nishikori #477

Michael Antonius #670

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 3

52 Service Points 60

37 First Serve In 38

28 First Serve Won 25

9 Second Serve Won 8

1 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 8

21 Winners 4

14 Unforced Errors 5

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Kei Nishikori vs Michael Antonius — Prediction