ATP tennis predict — Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang

ATP Hard Washington · 1. round

Predicted probability

Kei Nishikori

Japan

47.57%

Juncheng Shang

China

52.43%

Average Odds

2.46 / 1.53

Market probability

38.35% / 61.65%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1792.9 Elo 1701.6

1818.9 Elo (surface) 1689.2

488 Wins 65

329 Wins (surface) 52

6 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 1

0.893 Dominance ratio 0.852

520 Rank 181

36.6 Age 21.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kei Nishikori

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Juncheng Shang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kei Nishikori Juncheng Shang

1st Serve In %

60.6%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

66.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

54.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

67.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

58.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kei Nishikori Juncheng Shang

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

51.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.1%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kei Nishikori 2 – 1 Juncheng Shang

Hard Washington · 2026-07-27

1. round

Kei Nishikori #721

Juncheng Shang #270

6-7 6-3 6-4

4 Aces 6

0 Double Faults 2

97 Service Points 109

70 First Serve In 58

51 First Serve Won 41

19 Second Serve Won 31

0 Break Points Saved 7

0 Break Points Faced 9

28 Winners 27

44 Unforced Errors 43

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Hong Kong · 2024-12-30

SF

Kei Nishikori #106

Juncheng Shang #50

4-3 RET

3 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 0

22 Service Points 15

13 First Serve In 12

10 First Serve Won 9

7 Second Serve Won 3

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Chengdu · 2024-09-18

R32

Juncheng Shang #67

Kei Nishikori #201

6-4 6-4

5 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 3

71 Service Points 64

42 First Serve In 39

33 First Serve Won 26

13 Second Serve Won 12

8 Break Points Saved 5

9 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Atlanta · 2023-07-24

R16

Kei Nishikori #439

Juncheng Shang #156

6-4 7-6(3)

4 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 2

61 Service Points 63

40 First Serve In 42

31 First Serve Won 25

13 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Kei Nishikori — Last 10

Juncheng Shang — Last 10