ATP tennis predict — Kei Nishikori vs Frances Tiafoe

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Kei Nishikori

Japan

29.35%

Frances Tiafoe

USA

70.65%

Average Odds

4.18 / 1.21

Market probability

22.45% / 77.55%

Why This Prediction?

Frances Tiafoe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2099 vs 1892), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2034 vs 1863) and better recent form (11 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7).

Player Comparison

1892.5 Elo 2098.8

1862.8 Elo (surface) 2034.2

492 Wins 301

333 Wins (surface) 209

7 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.970 Dominance ratio 0.885

436 Rank 8

36.8 Age 28.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kei Nishikori

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kei Nishikori Frances Tiafoe

1st Serve In %

60.6%

52.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kei Nishikori Frances Tiafoe

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.1%

70.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kei Nishikori 1 – 0 Frances Tiafoe

Hard Vienna · 2018-10-22

R32

Kei Nishikori #11

Frances Tiafoe #45

7-6(3) 5-7 6-2

9 Aces 10

3 Double Faults 0

95 Service Points 87

60 First Serve In 54

45 First Serve Won 40

21 Second Serve Won 18

3 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Kei Nishikori vs Frances Tiafoe — Prediction