ATP tennis predict — Keegan Smith vs Paul Inchauspe

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Keegan Smith

USA

67.91%

Paul Inchauspe

France

32.09%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.47

Market probability

62.06% / 37.94%

Why This Prediction?

Keegan Smith is the favorite because he has more career match wins (104 vs 3), a higher Elo rating (1580 vs 1512) and more wins on hard courts (94 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1579.7 Elo 1512.0

1525.2 Elo (surface) 1579.2

104 Wins (Challenger) 3

94 Wins (surface) 3

9 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.812 Dominance ratio 0.892

209 Rank 770

28.1 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Paul Inchauspe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Paul Inchauspe

1st Serve In %

71.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

75.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.64

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.1%

63.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.7%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.9%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Paul Inchauspe

Break Points Saved %

68.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

75.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.2%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keegan Smith 0 – 0 Paul Inchauspe

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-24

QF

Keegan Smith #209

Paul Inchauspe #770

6-7 7-6 7-6

5 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 4

114 Service Points 120

72 First Serve In 87

59 First Serve Won 71

25 Second Serve Won 18

3 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Keegan Smith vs Paul Inchauspe — Prediction