ATP tennis predict — Keegan Smith vs Kaylan Bigun

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · 1. round 00:20

Predicted probability

Keegan Smith

USA

79.85%

Kaylan Bigun

USA

20.15%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.05

Market probability

69.48% / 30.52%

Why This Prediction?

Keegan Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1640 vs 1409), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1607 vs 1398) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.35).

Player Comparison

1640.3 Elo 1409.3

1607.1 Elo (surface) 1397.9

106 Wins (Challenger) 16

96 Wins (surface) 12

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.730 Dominance ratio 0.990

199 Rank 594

28.3 Age 20.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Kaylan Bigun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Kaylan Bigun

1st Serve In %

71.2%

38.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.5%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.5%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.5%

56.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.73

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

75.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

18.9%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.2%

47.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Kaylan Bigun

Break Points Saved %

68.4%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

31.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keegan Smith 0 – 0 Kaylan Bigun

Hard Columbus 3 challenger · 2026-09-30

1. round

Keegan Smith #199

Kaylan Bigun #594

4-6 7-6 6-2

9 Aces 14

2 Double Faults 9

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

53 First Serve Won 48

13 Second Serve Won 21

5 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Keegan Smith vs Kaylan Bigun — Prediction