ATP tennis predict — Keegan Smith vs Hiroki Moriya

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Keegan Smith

USA

74.66%

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

25.34%

Average Odds

1.33 / 3.09

Market probability

69.91% / 30.09%

Why This Prediction?

Keegan Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1614 vs 1497), a higher Elo rating (1645 vs 1517) and a stronger serve (63.6% vs 62.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1645.0 Elo 1516.8

1614.0 Elo (surface) 1497.4

108 Wins (Challenger) 310

98 Wins (surface) 278

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.730 Dominance ratio 1.100

199 Rank 500

28.3 Age 36.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Hiroki Moriya

1st Serve In %

71.2%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.5%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.5%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.5%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.8%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

19.6%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.8%

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Hiroki Moriya

Break Points Saved %

68.4%

66.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

25.9%

40.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keegan Smith and Hiroki Moriya have never played each other.

Keegan Smith vs Hiroki Moriya — Prediction