ATP tennis predict — Keegan Smith vs Edward Winter

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · 1. round 00:35

Predicted probability

Keegan Smith

USA

47.73%

Edward Winter

Australia

52.27%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.35

Market probability

60.26% / 39.74%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1636.5 Elo 1619.4

1606.4 Elo (surface) 1605.4

105 Wins (Challenger) 41

95 Wins (surface) 39

8 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.730 Dominance ratio 1.178

194 Rank 338

28.2 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Edward Winter

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Edward Winter

1st Serve In %

71.2%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.5%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.5%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.5%

45.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.1%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.7%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.9%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.09

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Edward Winter

Break Points Saved %

68.4%

58.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

25.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

29.2%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keegan Smith 1 – 0 Edward Winter

Hard San Diego 2 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Keegan Smith #194

Edward Winter #338

6-3 4-6 6-2

4 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

33 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Fairfield CH · 2023-10-09

Q2

Keegan Smith #624

Edward Winter #612

6-4 6-0

2 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 50

34 First Serve In 28

23 First Serve Won 13

14 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Keegan Smith vs Edward Winter — Prediction