ATP tennis predict — Keegan Smith vs Dylan Dietrich

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · R16 00:30

Predicted probability

Keegan Smith

USA

45.18%

Dylan Dietrich

Switzerland

54.82%

Average Odds

2.14 / 1.60

Market probability

42.78% / 57.22%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1650.6 Elo 1760.4

1621.9 Elo (surface) 1637.0

106 Wins (Challenger) 17

96 Wins (surface) 7

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.730 Dominance ratio 0.932

194 Rank 409

28.2 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Dylan Dietrich

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Dylan Dietrich

1st Serve In %

71.2%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.5%

80.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.5%

60.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.5%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.1%

62.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.7%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.9%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Dylan Dietrich

Break Points Saved %

68.4%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

28.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

29.2%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keegan Smith and Dylan Dietrich have never played each other.

Keegan Smith vs Dylan Dietrich — Prediction