ATP tennis predict — Keegan Smith vs Alexis Galarneau

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Keegan Smith

USA

37.76%

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

62.24%

Average Odds

2.29 / 1.57

Market probability

40.67% / 59.33%

Why This Prediction?

Alexis Galarneau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1599 vs 1525), a higher Elo rating (1652 vs 1569) and a stronger return game (37.8% vs 30.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1568.7 Elo 1651.7

1524.7 Elo (surface) 1599.5

2 Wins 15

1 Wins (surface) 9

2 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.021 Dominance ratio 0.964

198 Rank 185

28.2 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Alexis Galarneau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Alexis Galarneau

1st Serve In %

71.2%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.5%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.5%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.5%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.1%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.7%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.9%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Smith Alexis Galarneau

Break Points Saved %

68.4%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

29.2%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keegan Smith 0 – 0 Alexis Galarneau

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Alexis Galarneau #183

Keegan Smith #193

7-6 6-3

10 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

84 Service Points 70

53 First Serve In 38

39 First Serve Won 31

14 Second Serve Won 21

7 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 2

20 Winners 30

27 Unforced Errors 17

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Keegan Smith vs Alexis Galarneau — Prediction