ATP tennis predict — Keegan Rice vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Keegan Rice

Canada

30.67%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Spain

69.33%

Average Odds

3.25 / 1.32

Market probability

28.88% / 71.12%

Why This Prediction?

Pablo Llamas Ruiz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1611 vs 1463), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1569 vs 1466) and a stronger serve (64.9% vs 60.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1463.0 Elo 1611.4

1466.5 Elo (surface) 1568.9

5 Wins (Challenger) 88

5 Wins (surface) 20

5 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.054 Dominance ratio 1.198

831 Rank 129

20.1 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Keegan Rice

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Rice Pablo Llamas Ruiz

1st Serve In %

64.7%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

81.8%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

38.9%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

7.4%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.9%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.5%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.7%

54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.5%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.08

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Keegan Rice Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.1%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Keegan Rice 0 – 0 Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-29

1. round

Keegan Rice #831

Pablo Llamas Ruiz #129

6-4 3-6 6-4

5 Aces 0

9 Double Faults 2

123 Service Points 87

76 First Serve In 50

45 First Serve Won 30

24 Second Serve Won 17

13 Break Points Saved 3

18 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.2 Average Odds 1.3

Keegan Rice vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — Prediction