ATP tennis predict — Kaylan Bigun vs Keegan Smith

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Kaylan Bigun

USA

20.56%

Keegan Smith

USA

79.44%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Keegan Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1640 vs 1409), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1607 vs 1398) and a stronger serve (70.9% vs 54.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1409.3 Elo 1640.3

1397.9 Elo (surface) 1607.1

16 Wins (Challenger) 106

12 Wins (surface) 96

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.990 Dominance ratio 0.730

594 Rank 199

20.4 Age 28.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kaylan Bigun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaylan Bigun Keegan Smith

1st Serve In %

38.2%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

61.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.5%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.73

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.7%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

21.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.0%

38.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaylan Bigun Keegan Smith

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

68.4%

Break Points Converted %

16.7%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

58.9%

Break Points Converted %

34.7%

30.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kaylan Bigun and Keegan Smith have never played each other.

Kaylan Bigun vs Keegan Smith — Prediction