ATP tennis predict — Kaya Arinc vs Gabriel Ghetu

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:40

Predicted probability

Kaya Arinc

Turkey

20.58%

Gabriel Ghetu

Romania

79.42%

Average Odds

11.33 / 1.03

Market probability

8.33% / 91.67%

Why This Prediction?

Gabriel Ghetu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1634 vs 1423), fewer double faults per game (0.15 vs 0.48) and better recent form (2 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1420.1 Elo 1455.2

1422.6 Elo (surface) 1633.6

0 Wins (Challenger) 2

0 Wins (surface) 0

0 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.789 Dominance ratio 0.712

- Rank 625

26.9 Age 18.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kaya Arinc

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Gabriel Ghetu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaya Arinc Gabriel Ghetu

1st Serve In %

—

51.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

45.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

58.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

61.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

33.3%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

44.3%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.4%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.08

Double Faults per Service Game

0.71

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaya Arinc Gabriel Ghetu

Break Points Saved %

—

25.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

46.9%

Break Points Converted %

71.4%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kaya Arinc 0 – 0 Gabriel Ghetu

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Gabriel Ghetu #625

Kaya Arinc #-

6-1 6-1

0 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 2

38 Service Points 43

20 First Serve In 21

8 First Serve Won 16

5 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 0

9 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 11.3

Kaya Arinc vs Gabriel Ghetu — Prediction