ATP tennis predict — Kasidit Samrej vs Hiroki Moriya

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 1. round 07:45

Predicted probability

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

55.65%

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

44.35%

Average Odds

2.03 / 1.72

Market probability

45.87% / 54.13%

Why This Prediction?

Kasidit Samrej is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1534 vs 1505) and a higher Elo rating (1534 vs 1508).

Player Comparison

1534.0 Elo 1508.1

1533.5 Elo (surface) 1504.6

41 Wins (Challenger) 307

41 Wins (surface) 275

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.048 Dominance ratio 1.066

486 Rank 518

25.6 Age 35.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kasidit Samrej

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kasidit Samrej Hiroki Moriya

1st Serve In %

56.4%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.9%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.6%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.46

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.51

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kasidit Samrej Hiroki Moriya

Break Points Saved %

48.4%

66.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

78.3%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.5%

38.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kasidit Samrej 0 – 0 Hiroki Moriya

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Kasidit Samrej #486

Hiroki Moriya #518

6-1 7-6

6 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 5

72 Service Points 69

44 First Serve In 44

34 First Serve Won 26

13 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Kasidit Samrej vs Hiroki Moriya — Prediction