ATP tennis predict — Kasidit Samrej vs Bernard Tomic

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · R16 08:55

Predicted probability

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

35.67%

Bernard Tomic

Australia

64.33%

Average Odds

3.15 / 1.33

Market probability

29.69% / 70.31%

Why This Prediction?

Bernard Tomic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1680 vs 1552), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1656 vs 1552) and more wins on hard courts (167 vs 4).

Player Comparison

1552.1 Elo 1680.3

1551.7 Elo (surface) 1656.1

42 Wins (Challenger) 153

42 Wins (surface) 120

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.035 Dominance ratio 1.013

486 Rank 179

25.6 Age 33.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kasidit Samrej

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kasidit Samrej Bernard Tomic

1st Serve In %

56.4%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.9%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.6%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.46

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.51

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kasidit Samrej Bernard Tomic

Break Points Saved %

48.4%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

78.3%

70.5%

Break Points Converted %

39.5%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kasidit Samrej 0 – 0 Bernard Tomic

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Kasidit Samrej #486

Bernard Tomic #179

7-5 7-6

5 Aces 12

0 Double Faults 2

64 Service Points 86

46 First Serve In 58

36 First Serve Won 44

10 Second Serve Won 17

0 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.1 Average Odds 1.3

Kasidit Samrej vs Bernard Tomic — Prediction