ATP tennis predict — Karl Poling vs Thomas Fancutt

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Karl Poling

USA

66.66%

Thomas Fancutt

Australia

33.34%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.13

Market probability

57.72% / 42.28%

Why This Prediction?

Karl Poling is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1508 vs 1474), a higher Elo rating (1510 vs 1474) and more wins on hard courts (1 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1510.2 Elo 1474.4

1507.6 Elo (surface) 1474.1

33 Wins (Challenger) 43

23 Wins (surface) 37

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.910 Dominance ratio 0.830

452 Rank 790

27.1 Age 31.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Karl Poling

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Thomas Fancutt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karl Poling Thomas Fancutt

1st Serve In %

65.0%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

19.4%

17.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

32.4%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.3%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.7%

67.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.7%

17.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

42.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karl Poling Thomas Fancutt

Break Points Saved %

67.9%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

57.1%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

61.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

21.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Karl Poling 0 – 0 Thomas Fancutt

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-25

1. round

Thomas Fancutt #790

Karl Poling #452

6-4 6-3

2 Aces 11

0 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 44

50 First Serve In 31

30 First Serve Won 27

9 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.6

Karl Poling vs Thomas Fancutt — Prediction